From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Against the backdrop of the immense confusion regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.
Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed
The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.
The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.
Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela
Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the headless administration are considerably more radical.
A Shift in Global Role
A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.
He believes that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.
An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty
George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.
Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
Few believe the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.
Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.
It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. The international community may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.